27-28-29 November 2023
Meet & Greet
Q & A Session
Energy price forecasting (EPF) is the process of using mathematical models to predict what
electricity prices will be in the future. EPF is an extremely important factor in the utilities’ decision
There is short-, medium- and long-term forecasting.
• Short-term forecasting, generally involves horizon from a few minutes up to a few days
ahead and is of prime importance in day-to-day market operations.
• Medium-term forecasting, from a few days to a few months ahead, is generally preferred for
balance sheet calculations, risk management and derivatives pricing.
• Long-term forecasting, with lead times measures in months, quarters or years,
concentrates on investment profitability analysis and planning.
Short industry description and background to the topic
Electricity (energy commodity) is traded on the wholesale market. Suppliers (electricity
generators) and demanders (retailers) are active on the wholesale electricity market. They meet on
the power exchange. Electricity generators disclose the amount of power they are willing to sell for
a given price and demanders disclose the amount of power they are prepared to buy for a given
price. As electricity cannot be stored economically, the electricity market has a highly volatile
character. That is why electricity price forecasting has to be based on reliable models that take
into account all major factors affecting the price.
Wholesale Market: Electricity (energy commodity) is traded on the wholesale market. Suppliers
(electricity generators) and demanders (retailers) are active on the wholesale electricity market.
Retail Market: Retailers purchase significant volumes of electricity in the wholesale market and
sell packages of smaller volumes to its customers.
A spot price is the current price in the marketplace at which a given asset such as a security,
commodity or currency can be bought or sold for immediate delivery.
A forward price is the predetermined delivery price for an asset decided upon by the long (the
buyer) and the short (the seller) to be paid at predetermined date in the future.
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